New Short Term Weather Model Is Very Promising

High resolution model data shows a band of showers, and perhaps even some thunder moving through Delmarva this evening. The rain will mostly be gone by 10:30 PM, and then skies will slowly clear as a chilly NW breeze develops. It will be rather chilly again by sunrise with lows in the mid 30’s under a deep blue sky. The images below are from one of the most advanced models being used on a daily basis for forecasting. It’s so complex that it takes quite a while to run, even on a super computer, so we only get data out to 15 hours. The good news is that it’s run every hour! Our opinion of it here in the WBOC Weather office is growing daily, and it will improve the short-term forecasts we give you, especially as we get used to its quirks and biases.

Here are some panels from the model output this evening and overnight.

HRRR- High resolution Rapid Refresh Model.

HRRR- High resolution Rapid Refresh Model.

Most of the rain will be gone by 11 PM.

Most of the rain will be gone by  10:30 PM.

It will be chilly by sunrise.

These forecast temps. may be slightly cooler than what we will see.

hrrr_t2m_harrisburg_16