Updated Thoughts on Weekend Snow Possibility

Good Morning Everyone!

After a few days of wishing and waiting and being patient, the models have come around on a solution where we have consistency on the idea of what is likely to happen heading into the weekend. I will be up front and honest with you, I am basing this forecast on a few things that we have been watching.

The models have been all over the place with how this storm will form and move the last few days.

The models have been all over the place with how this storm will form and move the last few days. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell, LLC.

The models have been all over the place with this storm since it started to show up on New Year’s weekend, but this is because we were modeling a storm that didn’t exist and was based on a storm that was driven by cold air that was changing how strong it would be with every model run. Now, as we get closer to the timing of the storm…the models are starting to hone in on a consensus solution which will bring the chance of snow for parts of Delmarva Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Due to rights, we can not post model outputs from the European computer model…but we can show you the American computer models all we want, since they are free to use by anyone around the world. We have to pay for the rights to see the European data and I refuse to jeopardize that to show the data.

GFS Model Forecast for Saturday Morning at 7am. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell, LLC.

GFS Model Forecast for Saturday Morning at 7am. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell, LLC.

Alright, here is what the latest line of thinking of what will happen as we enter into Saturday. The snow would start Saturday morning across southern portions of the peninsula. This snow event will start from south to north and with the amount of cold air in place by Saturday, this will be mainly a snow event for everyone.

GFS Model Forecast for Saturday Afternoon at 1pm. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell, LLC.

GFS Model Forecast for Saturday Afternoon at 1pm. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell, LLC.

The heaviest of the snow will fall by the afternoon into the evening hours of Saturday across southern portions, but the heaviest snow will fall south of Delmarva in the Hampton Roads region of Virginia. This low pressure will move away by Saturday evening and the snow will wrap up as we head to bed on Saturday night.

The models are still all over the place with regards to who will see how much snow from this system by Saturday night. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell LLC.

The models are still all over the place with regards to who will see how much snow from this system by Saturday night. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell LLC.

The snow totals from all the models are all over the place at this point that I am not comfortable with giving ranges of possible snowfall totals by the end of this storm. I can give you an idea of where we are thinking the snow will accumulate, and it will be mainly across central and southern portions of Delmarva. Expect to see higher accumulations the farther south you go on the peninsula.

Here is the latest line of thoughts with regards to the Saturday snow. Not comfortable with giving snow totals for Saturday.

Here is the latest line of thoughts with regards to the Saturday snow. Not comfortable with giving snow totals for Saturday.

There are still a lot of things to iron out, and I will be honest, things could still change as we are still two days away from this storm arriving. If this storm moves farther north and west, we could be dealing with more snow across more of Delmarva. This storm moves south and east, we could be dealing with little to no snow on Delmarva.

This is not the solid word or the solid forecast, but this is the idea of where the forecast is right now and where it has been trending the last few days. I just wanted to give you the latest information that we have…and so you can make a decision of what you are going to do, especially if you do have plans across southern Delmarva and down toward Hampton Roads for Saturday.

Again, I will write you another very updated look at what to expect by tomorrow morning. -Mike