Warm Start to Week, Trouble By The End?

Good Evening Everyone!

NAM 2m Temperature Forecast for Sunday Afternoon! Image Courtesy: WeatherBell LLC.

NAM 2m Temperature Forecast for Sunday Afternoon! Image Courtesy: WeatherBell LLC.

After a chilly start to the weekend, mother nature will be driving temperatures up heading into Sunday and early next week. High pressure is in control of the weather in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. This will allow for warmer air to arrive by Sunday, allowing temperatures into the 60s.

Weak front brings extra clouds and a slight chance of a shower for Monday.

Weak front brings extra clouds and a slight chance of a shower for Monday.

We stay in the 50s and 60s into early next week with a slight chance of a shower on Monday, but at this point we will keep the chance out of the forecast.

Stronger front brings a chance for showers and a couple rumbles of thunder Wednesday.

Stronger front brings a chance for showers and a couple rumbles of thunder Wednesday.

Our weather starts to turn interesting by Wednesday. It is then a strong cold front will push across Delmarva bringing a chance for rain into the forecast. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a few rumbles of thunder on Wednesday. This storm will pass and we will see some much colder air begin to rush across the region.

A second low will develop along the dipping jet stream on Thursday and move across the southeast on Friday. This is where the forecast gets tricky…

Comparison of last two GFS Model Runs for Friday Evening at 7pm. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell LLC.

Comparison of last two GFS Model Runs for Friday Evening at 7pm. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell LLC.

With the GFS (American) solution, we have been painted with two different scenarios in the span of 12 hours. The latest solution takes this storm just south of the region, with just a few clouds and maybe a chance of a few snow showers

Comparison of last two ECMWF Model Runs for Friday Morning at 7am. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell LLC.

Comparison of last two ECMWF Model Runs for Friday Morning at 7am. Image Courtesy: WeatherBell LLC.

The ECMWF (Euro) solution is the one that has my ears perked up… The last two model runs have this storm staying in the region, but moving a little farther north in the last model run….keeping us on the warm side long enough to keep the snow to our north…for the most part….

Precipitation type forecast for Friday if the Euro solution is correct. Something to watch the next few days.

Precipitation type forecast for Friday if the Euro solution is correct. Something to watch the next few days.

Again, many things still have to play out with this storm. I just wanted to give you all the heads up that we are monitoring the forecast and that things could change over the next 5 days.

For now, let’s enjoy the spring-like weather we have lined up for Sunday and early next week. 🙂