Erika remains poorly organized this evening but long-range numerical models continue to show it becoming a hurricane and threatening Florida by Monday. There is a great deal of uncertainty over the intensity of Erika since it will be passing near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the next two days. There is also the possibility that the steering currents could drop and cause Erika to stall near or just inland along the East coast next week.
Warmer, and much more humid weather will return to the entire eastern half of America next week, with well above normal temperatures. Here on Delmarva, we may see temps just a bit above average for early September due to an onshore flow. Inland though, it will likely be quite hot with highs in the 90’s as far north as Northern Michigan and western NY. The warm and muggy air will provide a lot of moisture to Erika, and if it stalls out, there is the potential for severe flooding rains. The oceans are currently at the warmest globally ever measured, and this will add in extra heat and water vapor as well. An interesting fact is that sea level in Florida is at least 3 inches higher than it was when Andrew hit Miami in 1992.