There is growing concern this evening that we will see a hurricane approaching the Southeast U.S. by late Sunday. Tropical Storm Erika is a bit better organized today and numerical models with physics especially designed for tropical cyclones are indicating that Erika will grow into a hurricane. The big question is what will happen to the steering currents as Erika approaches South Florida. There is a possibility that it will turn northward. It may re-curve into the Atlantic, or it may continue northward toward our area.
The track of Erika is fairly certain over the next 72 hours but the intensity forecast remains very uncertain, due to wind shear that can tear the storm apart. That said, some of the most reliable models are indicating that Erika could become a major hurricane by Sunday.